Wells Fargo Championship odds, expert picks, sleepers: Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa among best

The PGA Tour returns to Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. The tournament returns to Charlotte, North Carolina after having to be contested at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in 2022 so that Quail Hollow could be the host of the 2022 President’s Cup. Seventeen of the twenty-four players that teed it up during the 2022 President’s Cup will be part of the field this week. Max Homa is the returning champion of the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. He will have the added media and sponsorship responsibilities. Still, he should be used to them by now as he was also the winner at Quail Hollow in 2019 and was honored as the returning champion before the 2021 tournament after 2020 was skipped during the covid pandemic. The last player to win the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow is Rory McIlroy who won by a single shot in 2021 over Abraham Ancer. McIlroy has won three times in his career at Quail Hollow Club and lost in a playoff to Rickie Fowler.

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Quail Hollow Club will be a tough test for the players in the field this week as the Par 71 layout measures more than 7,500 yards with water in play on seven of the holes. The Green Mile — holes 16 through 18 — is one of the hardest finishing runs on the entire PGA Tour and will be must-watch TV on the weekend. Quail Hollow features Bermuda fairways, rough, and greens. The rough is over-seeded with rye and should be lush as the east coast has had a lot of rain this spring. The field is very strong even though Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm have decided to take the week off.

McIlroy is the headliner of the field this week as he looks to get back on form in stroke play events after missing two straight cuts. Outside of McIlroy and Max Homa, the other top players in the field don’t have quite the same resumes at Quail Hollow. Justin Thomas has a win when the PGA Championship was contested at Quail Hollow, but he hasn’t done much here since. Jordan Spieth hasn’t teed it up at Quail Hollow since 2013, but it will be tough to ignore his current form even if this isn’t one of his favorite stops on the PGA Tour. Two players that have had bounce back seasons Jason Day and Rickie Fowler have excellent course histories here with Jason Day having a win in 2018 since the course was lengthened and changed to a Par 71.

Strokes gained off the tee will be one of the key stats this week, but strokes gained on approach as well as strokes gained on approach from mid to long iron distance will factor more heavily. The green complexes are a little tougher than what the players have seen the last few weeks so strokes gained around the green will have to be considered this week. Putting isn’t a key statistic for me this week so that could lead me to like some players who have been held back by their putter so far this year like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Shane Lowry.

Betting Slip

Viktor Hovland +2100 looked to be on the way to contending for his first win in 2023 at the RBC Heritage after a great first round, but his putter turned ice cold from Friday on which led to him finishing way back in the field. It’s doubtful he’s going to lose over seven strokes again on the greens this week so I’m confident going right back to the Hovland well. He finished 3rd here in 2021 after gaining 8.79 strokes on the field from tee to green. He’s gained over 12 strokes combined ball striking in his last two events.

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Justin Thomas +2200 has gained strokes off the tee in five straight tournaments. He has gained more than five strokes ball striking in three out of his last five outings. His around-the-green game has continued to be excellent even while his putter has been in the doldrums. Thomas has a win here and has done okay in his other two trips without being able to put it all together. I really like the statistical profile he had at Valspar and the RBC Heritage outside of his putting and there’s always hope he can figure that out after a few weeks off. I think he needed those weeks off after it was rumored he was nursing a bit of an injury at the Masters.

Collin Morikawa +2400 is not bothered by long courses despite giving up quite a few yards to the field off the tee. His superior ball striking and improvement around the green game make up for any shortcomings off the tee. Morikawa was trending towards a win at the RBC Heritage, and his putting and short game let him down that week. I think missing the cut at the Zurich Classic only helps him refocus on his game heading into this week. He was a solid 2-1 at the President’s Cup, so he at least has that practice under his belt.

Sleepers

Sahith Theegala +5000 has gained strokes on the field in five straight off the tee. He’s been pretty steady on his approach shots over his last six tournaments besides at the Players Championship where he struggled. His around-the-green game has been a big weapon for him lately, and it really showed at the RBC Heritage where he gained over five strokes around the green on the field. He’s an ascending talent on the PGA Tour who has now played in majors and competed so getting his first win at a designated event wouldn’t surprise me.

Keegan Bradley +7000 finished second at the Wells Fargo Championship last season at a different course, so don’t let that fool you. He finished 18th here in 2021 and made the cut at the PGA Championship in 2017 so he has some decent course history. He is back to gaining strokes off the tee as he has gained more than 1.4 strokes off the tee in each of his last two tournaments. He has gained over five strokes combined around the green in his last two tournaments as well. With a win at ZOZO and a second-place finish at Torrey Pines this year, I was surprised he was available at this number.

Keith Mitchell +7000 had a bit of a coming-out party at the Wells Fargo Championship in 2021. Rory McIlroy talked up his game to the whole world as they battled for the win and Mitchell has built on that experience ever since. He and Sungjae made a great team at the Zurich Classic which should have him coming into this week in a good and relaxed mood.

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DFS Plays

Rory McIlroy $11,100 is the highest-priced option this week and will be tough to fade with his course history. The game theory option is to probably play an under-owned Xander Schauffele or Tony Finau in some GPP lineups, but I will have a tough time doing so. McIlroy has been too good over the years here and is coming into this week absolutely destroying the ball off the tee as he is averaging over 326 yards on his drives. Any way you slice it this week, McIlroy will find his way to the top of your models. The players I want to get into my lineups in the 7K range make rostering McIlroy pretty easy.

Patrick Cantlay $10,500 comes to Quail Hollow this week as a different player than he was in 2021 when he missed the cut. He is much longer and better off the tee than he way in 2021 and it shows when you look at his statistics. He is number one in the field in strokes gained averaged per round over his last 36 rounds. He has been all around the leaderboard lately with a handful of mistakes derailing him on the back nine at the RBC Heritage. He seemed very comfortable at Quail Hollow during the President’s Cup where he was a leader for the United States team as he went 3-1. His price is super inviting, but I doubt I am using him in cash games. Caddie Joe LaCava is on the bag for Cantlay this week after getting permission from Tiger Woods to permanently switch to Cantlay.

Collin Morikawa $9,800 See above.

Jordan Spieth $9,600 has four top-four finishes in his last six tournaments. If you go back a little further, he has five top-six finishes in his last seven tournaments. He has gained strokes on approach in eight straight tournaments, and he has gained more than four strokes ball striking in his last four stroke play events. Spieth finished T28 here at the 2017 PGA Championship and hasn’t teed it up in a tournament here besides the PGA Championship since 2013. What some may forget is how well he played at the President’s Cup in September when he went 5-0 including his first Presiden’t Cup single win.

Viktor Hovland $9,200 See above.

Sungjae Im $9,100 has five top-seven finishes in his last ten outings. He has gained strokes off the tee in his last seven measured tournaments. His record here hasn’t been very good with a T31 and missed cut, but I’m not that concerned with his course history. I think he’s an excellent pivot from what will be a very popular Jason Day.

Jason Day $9,000 has a win at Quail Hollow in 2018 which backed up his incredible play at the 2017 PGA Championship, where a bad Saturday derailed a potential win. I’m a little concerned that he might have some rust to his game after sitting out since the Masters. He hasn’t gained off the tee in two straight stroke play events, and he hasn’t gained a full stroke on approach in four straight stroke play events.

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Justin Thomas $8,900 See above.

Rickie Fowler $8,800 has made ten straight cuts in stroke play events. He has some great memories at Quail Hollow, with a win back in 2012 and a top-five finish at the 2017 PGA Championship. The days of Fowler being in the high 7K look to be gone as he has regained his form. He has gained on approach in eleven straight stroke play events.

Cameron Young $8,700 has gained strokes off the tee in eight straight stroke play events. He seems like the ideal fit for a long tough course like Quail Hollow even though he went 1-2-1 at the President’s Cup in September. He has gained over 5.9 strokes ball striking in four of his last five stroke play events. His price seems off, so I expect him to be very popular at this price.

Sahith Theegala $8,200 See above.

Shane Lowry $8,100 has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events. He has gained 1.6 strokes or more off the tee in five of his last six stroke play events. His results haven’t been great at Quail Hollow where he has lost three strokes or more with his short game in three straight trips. He has only gained strokes with his putter in two out of his last ten tournaments. He has taken the last few weeks off so I’m hoping he figured out something and can be a sneaky pivot in this price range.

Corey Conners $7,900 would be a favorite play for everyone this week if he didn’t miss the cut at the Masters. Conners has gained strokes off the tee in nine out of his last eleven tournaments. The only issue I have with Conners is how he struggles around the green which could hurt him this week. I still feel like this is a green light price for Conners at a ball strikers course.

Keith Mitchell $7,800 See above.

Wyndham Clark $7,800 sees his price drop by $1,900 even though he played well on the weekend at the Mexico Open. Clark has gained 2.3 or more strokes on approach in six of his last seven measured events. The field is stronger than the fields he has contended against lately, but that doesn’t mean you should fade him. I love the players in this range and Clark will be in the mix.

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Keegan Bradley $7,700 See above.

Gary Woodland $7,600 has gained four or more strokes ball striking in five straight events. He is back to pounding the ball off the tee averaging over 313 yards off the tee. His putter has been the big problem as he has lost four or more strokes putting in four out of his last nine events. He gained 10 strokes tee to green at the Mexico Open and he lost 7.35 strokes putting on very easy greens. You have to play him. Just be careful going too heavy.

Taylor Moore $7,600 has gained strokes off the tee in eight of his last nine stroke play events. He has gained on approach in six of his last eight outings and his putting has been off the charts. He shows up much higher than his price in my model and will be in heavy rotation for me.

Patrick Rodgers $7,500 has gained over five strokes ball striking in three straight tournaments. He’s had some good results at Quail Hollow before so I would go right back to Rodgers without an issue.

Emiliano Grillo $7,400 seemed a bit like fool’s gold heading into last week, but he proved me wrong in a big way. While he gained around the green at the RBC Heritage, he went back to his old ways and gained a ton of strokes on approach at the Mexico Open. 9.56 strokes to be exact. He has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach in his last two trips to Quail Hollow so I would be confident he can keep up that form.

Hayden Buckley $7,400 has gained off the tee in twelve straight measured events. He struggles around the green a bit so I’m not sure he can contend at Quail Hollow, but he won’t have an issue off the tee. He gained over ten strokes from tee to green in his last two strokes play events. I’m going to use Buckley in some lineups, but I will lean more toward Moore or the top of the 7K range.

Adam Scott $7,300 has not had the best time at Quail Hollow over the last few years. He hasn’t finished better than T17 at Quail Hollow since 2009. I’m only mentioning him because his price seems too low. Is it a trap? I may use Scott as a sprinkle in some GPP lineups because he will be low-owned.

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Byeong Hun An $7,100 has changed his game since he last teed it up here. He is much longer off the tee than he was before he gained his card back on the Korn Ferry Tour. He has been excellent all year around the greens. He has ten straight-made cuts outside of his WD at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His best result was his T6 at the Texas Open where he gained 4.88 strokes off the tee and 4.26 strokes on approach.

Akshay Bhatia $7,000 has played here before and missed the cut, but he gained 2.45 strokes off the tee that week. He’s an even better player off the tee now than he was then. He gained 6.69 strokes on approach at the Mexico Open and finally gained with his putter as he got a crash course in the aim point method from Harry Hall.

SH Kim $7,000 has made four straight cuts and has gained over three strokes off the tee in two straight measured events. He tends to be under-owned in almost every event so even if you take him in a handful of lineups you will probably be overweight.

Dylan Wu $6,700 has made the cut in seven straight-stroke play events. He has gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five measured events. In his last two measured events, he has gained over five strokes combined on approach.

Michael Kim $6,600 has made eight of his last nine cuts and has gained strokes on approach in three straight measured events. He has been lights out with the putter lately gaining over three strokes putting in his last three measured events.

Alejandro Tosti $6,500 made into the event because of his top ten at the Mexico Open. He showed off his ball striking in Mexico gaining over five strokes on approach for the week. He’s long off the tee and seems to be an excellent ball striker so I wouldn’t be surprised if this course fit him well.

Pierceson Coody $6,500 is starting on the PGA Tour for the 1st time since his T53 at the Valero Texas Open. He has three top 15 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour since then and it will be fun to watch him this week with his power off the tee.

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Carson Young $6,100 has made four out of his last seven cuts and has two top-nineteen finishes in his last three outings. He gained over seven strokes ball striking in each of those top nineteen finishes. If you are going stars and scrubs, he’s worth a shot.

One and Done

Andrew DeWitt: $8,499,266.22 (1 winner, 14 of 16 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $4,918,781 (12 of 16 cuts)

John Hayes: $4,502,068.37 (13 of 16 cuts)

If you want to see the golfers we have used through the first part of the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here.

Esser: I saved Rory McIlroy for this tournament because of his course history here and because of the elevated event status that the Wells Fargo Championship gained this year. I am concerned that Rory has missed two stroke play event cuts in a row, but not enough to keep me from using him in a spot he loves.

Hayes: I’m selecting former Wells Fargo champion Jason Day. The Australian is having a great season and this golf course sets up perfectly for him both physically and mentally. Quail Hollow demands power off the tee and a great short game around difficult greens. Day checks both boxes.

DeWitt: My pick this week is Cameron Young. He reminds me of Scottie Scheffler before he broke out with several wins in a row last year including the Masters. Seeing Young hit the ball in person, it is just different than most of the other PGA Tour players. Quail Hollow requires a long hitter to win and Young is that. He hasn’t played here in a PGA Tour tournament, but he did compete in the Presidents’ Cup here last year so he has some experience.

(Photo of Viktor Hovland: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

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