Fantasy basketball mailbag: Navigating a tricky first round, potential impact rookies and more

Welcome to the 2023-2024 fantasy basketball season! We are tipping things off with this mailbag, but stay tuned for much more to come in the next few weeks from our dynamic fantasy hoops duo of Eric Wong and Stan Son. From rankings, to breakout candidates, to roster building strategies, and much more, they’ll have you covered as you prepare for your upcoming drafts.

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Away we go!

Who’s the Lauri Markkanen for 2023-24? And what are the chances he reproduces his stats from last year? — Glenn G.

That’s the big question, Glenn! After all, not only did Markkanen win the Most Improved Player award, but he appeared on a very high percentage of winning fantasy teams. Unfortunately, I’m only going to give you one name right now because I have a specific article upcoming that’s focused on my top candidates to be this year’s Markkanen.

Just like how Markkanen received a massive increase in usage last season after joining a new team, I expect Jordan Poole to take a huge leap this season. He won’t be as under the radar as Markkanen was last year, but he could still surpass most people’s expectations.

Do you think Anthony Davis plays enough games this year to be drafted at the end of the first round? — Steven M.

Your guess is as good as mine, but is he worth the risk/reward at the end of the first round? Most definitely.

What kind of fantasy output is realistic for Jalen Williams this year? Is his end-of-season production the norm or is regression coming with Chet Holmgren healthy? — Larry S.

I like this line of questioning, Larry, as it’s the right way to analyze a top young player who will be joined by another top young player. I fully expect Holmgren to hurt all of OKC’s young guns in the rebounding department, but on the plus side, his shot-blocking ability might lead to them gambling for more steals. He’s also dynamic enough offensively that the team’s overall scoring and efficiency should improve. So I wouldn’t project a massive jump from J-Dub, but I don’t see negative regression either.

The first round, after the first 5-6 picks (depending on how you feel about Luka Doncic), gets very risky. Any advice on how to go about drafting in the later part of the first round? — John L.

I agree that after the first six or seven picks it gets a little cloudy, with perhaps another dozen players having the potential to return Top 10 value. Since my projections have players in this draft range very closely bunched, I suggest throwing numbers out the window when it’s your turn to pick. Instead, just go with your gut, and base it on who you want to be watching lead your team on a nightly basis.

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Who are some point guards in the later rounds who are being slept on? — Kean

A couple of point guards who I feel proved themselves last season but are still being  somewhat neglected are Markelle Fultz and Tre Jones. Fultz has gotten past his previous injury issues and seems to really understand his role in Orlando, and should be a reliable late-round source of steals and assists — with decent blocks from the PG spot as well. And Jones doesn’t have much competition for minutes in San Antonio now that Cameron Payne has been waived. What he does have is a massive new target to throw lobs to, which will make the game much easier for the fourth-year guard.

Which punt strategy do you like the best this season in a 12-team, 9-cat, H2H league? — James C.

I’m always a fan of the tried and true formula of punting free throw percentage. There are just so many intriguing players to choose from every season who are elite in numerous categories, but struggle to knock down freebies.

Another category to consider punting is 3-pointers, since it’s gotten to the point where your team needs to take and make so many treys just to be competitive in that category. Obviously the idea here is to load up on players who are skilled and efficient, but aren’t major 3-point threats.

Examples of this type of player include Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Giddey, Markelle Fultz, Tre Jones and a discounted Ja Morant. Surround a bunch of those players with a dominant big man like Anthony Davis, and you’ll have a team that won’t beat anybody in threes, but should be rock solid to very strong everywhere else.

Walker Kessler seems to be the highest ranked second-year player. Similarly, Jaren Jackson Jr. is ranked very high. Blocks seems to be a variable stat — how do you feel about ranking these guys so high based on the blocks value? — Jadeon H.

Fantastic question, Jadeon. There’s always been lots of volatility in the defensive categories, shot-blocking especially. A famous example was Hassan Whiteside leading the league in blocks in 2019-20, and then barely playing the following season. Or consider that Myles Turner blocked a massive 3.4 shots per game in 2020-21, but was down to just 2.3 swats per game this past season. So it’s an aspect of fantasy hoops where managers should tread cautiously.

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However, I do think that JJJ and Kessler are truly elite shot-blockers, and both players are also locked into huge minutes and major roles this year. So in their cases, I think their current ADPs are justifiable.

What rookies — outside of Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and Brandon Miller — do you see having the most instant impact? — Brackett S.

Well, first of all, who said Miller was going to have an instant impact? He has plenty of competition for minutes in Charlotte’s frontcourt, and I think he’ll disappoint early on. I think the Thompson twins will get a chance to play solid rotation minutes right away, and Jarace Walker should also step into a sizable role in Indiana. All three players have NBA-ready bodies, thanks to their speed, strength and athleticism. And don’t forget about everyone’s favorite summer league guard, Keyonte George. With no clear leader in Utah’s backcourt, George has a chance to seize major minutes from day one.

How many points per game do you expect Tyrese Haliburton to score this year? — Brett W.

I’ll go with a 5-10% jump in Haliburton’s scoring, meaning between 21.7 and 22.7 points per game. But his assists will also rise, and his defensive numbers may as well. There’s no doubt that he’ll be posting elite numbers this season, so he’ll simply need to stay healthy.

A lot of people seem to be screaming about Cade Cunningham this year as a must-draft player (by the third round, at least). Unfortunately, I bit on him last year and, with a couple of other bad picks (Rudy Gobert), it was a tough year. Do you buy into CC being a monster, and also what do you think about the odds of Gobert looking better? — John B.

I’m definitely buying stock in Cunningham, as the development of big man Jalen Duren and secondary creator Jaden Ivey will be a big help to him. The main concern with Cunningham will be Detroit’s lack of floor spacing whenever multiple bigs are on the floor and Bojan Bogdanovic is on the bench. But I think Cunningham will show that he’s a borderline All-Star this season.

As for Gobert, I wouldn’t hold your breath on him returning to Top 50 fantasy form. Quite simply, it’s a tough fit with him and Karl-Anthony Towns sharing the floor together, and the emergence of Naz Reid doesn’t help matters. As long as you draft him based on last year’s numbers, you should be okay, but I suggest letting him fall into your lap rather than aggressively targeting him.

Who would be a “lesser evil” pick in the No. 8-12 overall range? Dame and Harden are murky with trade speculations, KD has injury risks plus probably less usage in the Suns’ Big 3, Giannis has knee issues and is a FT punt, while AD and Lamelo have never been healthy. Would you rather pick someone like Kyrie, Sabonis, Anthony Edwards, or Trey in the late 1st rounds? — Noel Joseph C.

Except for Nikola Jokic, every star player seemingly has some drawbacks. But if you believe that one of Durant, Giannis or Davis is going to have good luck on the injury front this season, they probably have the highest upsides. Or if you believe that Anthony Edwards is going to shock the world this season by taking his game to the next level, or that LaMelo Ball is going to have a major bounce-back year, they too are strong picks.

How confident are you in a bounce-back season for Giannis given the knee issue and drop in FT% and defensive stats last year? — Johnathan W.

Well, I think Milwaukee getting knocked out of the playoffs early will be a huge motivator for Giannis this season, and his free throw shooting can’t get any worse — or can it? From a fantasy standpoint, I definitely like his decision to skip playing for Greece in the FIBA World Cup, which should help his body hold up better for the upcoming season. And I’d be shocked if his defensive numbers didn’t improve. So I definitely think he’ll bounce back, the question is just how much better he will be.

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Who will be the big-stats-on-a-bad-team all stars this season? — Andrew B.

Juicy question here, let’s see… I’m projecting the bottom five teams this season to be the Portland Trail Blazers, Washington Wizards, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets, so if I had to pick a starting five from those teams based on upside, I’d go with Anfernee Simons, Jordan Poole, Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembanyama and Alperen Sengun. There are plenty of other interesting options from those teams as well.

What are your thoughts on how coaching changes around the league might affect fantasy? I’m thinking Paul Reed gets more minutes now, for example. — Rory O.

You hit the nail on the head with new 76ers coach Nick Nurse helping to unlock Paul Reed, who is sure to be a favorite “sleeper” by many this season. Others to consider in this vein are the defensive-minded trio of Jabari Smith Jr., Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason being preferred by new Houston coach Ime Udoka; Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby getting bigger offensive roles under new Toronto coach Darko Rajakovic; and Monty Williams doing a fine job of empowering all of his young core in Detroit.

Can you please rank the top four roto players from the list below?  Here’s my lineup from last year (please rank the top four): Lauri Markkanen, Kyle Kuzma, Walker Kessler, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Devin Vassell, Cameron Johnson, Jalen Duren, Talen Horton-Tucker, Onyeka Okongwu, Jeremy Sochan or Kevin Porter Jr.. — Ioannis H.

Haha, did you really need to include Horton-Tucker and Porter as potential keepers? I like the idea of keeping Kessler and Sengun as an excellent 1-2 center punch with lots of upside, and then supplementing them with Markkanen as your top overall player. Since Kuzma is a little too similar to Markkanen in terms of lacking in steals, I’d probably opt for Vassell as your fourth keeper, for some help in that category.

What are your thoughts on Tari Eason this year? — Dave S.

Is it a cop out to say that Eason will average more than last year’s 9.3 points, 6.0 boards, 1.1 assists and 0.6 blocks per game, but less than the 23.0 points, 9.5 boards, 4.0 assists and 3.0 blocks that he averaged over his two Las Vegas summer league games? Kidding, of course, but I do think that Eason will have a lot more usable fantasy moments in his second season. In a perfect world, Eason might even garner some Sixth Man of the Year votes at the end of the season. He’s a nice late round upside pick.

I’m in a 9-cat, H2H league. We have a snake draft with a reverse draft order flip in the third round. What are your thoughts on a reverse flip and why don’t more leagues do a reverse flip? — James C.

Third round reversal is where it’s at, and not using it is like living in the stone age. Congrats on your league being modernized.

(Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports)

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